A disaster analyst models emergency shelter capacity. If the total demand follows a normal distribution with mean 850 people and standard deviation 120, what is the probability that demand exceeds 1000 people?

Tue, 05 May 2026 21:31:49 +0000

**The Hidden Math Behind Emergency Shelter Demand—And Why It Matters** Just as cities prepare for floods, wildfires, and climate disruptions, professionals model how many emergency shelters will be needed. A disaster analyst’s work hinges on understanding the flow of displaced people—how much demand might emerge when predetermined capacity models are activated. One critical question arises: if total demand follows a normal distribution—mean 850 people with 120 variation—what’s the chance demand exceeds 1,000? This isn’t just statistical curiosity. It reflects real-world pressures shaping policy, funding, and planning across the U.S. Understanding demand patterns helps communities build resilient infrastructure. With extreme weather events increasing nationwide, knowing when shelter demand might surge enables smarter resource allocation. This insight matters for local governments, nonprofits, and emergency planners—people actively shaping safety and response strategies. ### Why This Population Model Matters in the U.S.